Catastrophe Theory: Microsoft on the verge of a sudden collapse?

“Last week, usability expert Jakob Nielsen wrote a devastating critique of Windows 8 on his Alertbox blog,” Anthony Wing Kosner writes for Forbes. “Okay, so Microsoft overreached on this one. They'll fix it for Windows 9, right?”

“But will it get the chance? I know that sounds extreme, and it never would have occurred to me if I hadn't read Charlie Demerjian's piece, ‘Microsoft Has Failed,’ on his SemiAccurate blog,” Kosner writes. “Demerjian lays out a scenario for a precipitous death spiral: ‘The problem is that if you are locked in with a choice of 100% Microsoft or 0% Microsoft, once someone goes, it isn't a baby step, they are gone. Once you start using Google Docs and the related suites, you have no need for Office. That means you, or likely your company, saves several hundred dollars a head. No need for Office means no need for Exchange. No need for Exchange means no need for Windows Server. No need for Office means no need for Windows. Once the snowball starts rolling, it picks up speed a frightening pace. And that is where we are. The barriers to exit are now even more potent barriers to entry.’”

Kosner writes, “The first thing this reminded me of was Catastrophe Theory, a branch of mathematics developed by Ren Thom in the 1960 s that describes, ‘phenomena characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances, analysing how the qualitative nature of equation solutions depends on the parameters that appear in the equation. This may lead to sudden and dramatic changes, for example the unpredictable timing and magnitude of a landslide.’”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Even when misguided fools lined up for upside-down and backwards, insecure, pretend Macs in 1995, some us never lost sight of the fascinating, slow-motion train wreck called Microsoft. We’ve been waiting for the acceleration and the pileup of smoking wreckage for quite some time and we will relish it with complete satisfaction; all the while toasting Ballmer T. Clown while wishing Steve were here to see it, too.

How Apple could build the dominant computing platform

“Computer processors keep on shrinking, which improves their power and reduces their energy needs and costs. In the not too distant future, this means full PC power in your mobile phone, which could be seamless from your tablet/PC experience,” Shareholders Unite write for Seeking Alpha. “However, we’re not there yet, and there are awkward trade-offs and compromises involving different types of processors and operating systems in the meantime.... Apple (AAPL) is best positioned to eliminate these trade-offs and compromises and arrive first at a unified computing platform.”

“Apple ould have a serious headstart here. Take not of the fact that according to Bloomberg, Apple is seriously considering ditching Intel processors in favor of ARM based ones even for its iMacs,” Shareholders Unite write. “With the coming 64-bit architecture for the ARM based platform, memory limits (the 32-bit chips limit RAM to 4GB) will be a thing of the past. Apple has a long-standing relation with ARM going back to the 1980s and at one stage owned over 40% of the company. Moving to ARM based chips would give Apple, which has heavily invested in chip design capabilities lately, more freedom to design chips according to its own specifications, giving it a leg up versus the competition... Apple pays under $20 for its A6 processor, compare that to Intel processors, a low end Core i3 starts at $117.”

Shareholders Unite write, “Apple could be moving to a single operating system, combined with its own designed chips that go into every Apple device. This would not only give the company a unified space for mobile, tablets, and PC’s, it would create a seamless consumer experience, and doing so at a significant cost advantage... Apple’s lead could be difficult to overcome, at least in the consumer space.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple already has built the dominant computing platform. Apple is, by far, the #1 computer maker on earth.

Beleaguered Microsoft has failed

“Microsoft is in deep trouble, their two main product lines are failing, and the blame game is intensifying,” Charlie Demerjian writes for SemiAccurate. “Steve Sinofsky gets the blame this time for the failure of Windows 8, but the real problem is the patterns that are so clearly illustrated by these actions.”

“Microsoft is largely irrelevant to computing of late, the only markets they still play in are evaporating with stunning rapidity,” Demerjian writes. “Their product lines have stagnated, creating customer lock in is prioritized over creating customer value, and the supply chain is controlled by an iron fisted monopoly. Any attempt at innovation with a Windows PC has been shut out for over a decade, woe betide anyone who tried to buck that trend.”

Demerjian writes, “In the end, Windows advanced only to the point of undercutting any competition, and even then to the minimum extent possible. The rules in Redmond were, "Do not change anything unless it is to crush someone doing something innovative". They didn't unless they did, and it worked. And the market stagnated... In such a situation, a company has two choices, both of which are quite stark. They can radically change their ways or they can wither and die. Before you point to Windows 8 and say, ‘But they are changing and innovating,’ hold off a moment, it isn't what you think... Even if they wanted to, they are culturally far beyond the point of being able to. What was a slow bleed of marketshare is now gushing, and management is clueless, intransigent, and myopic. Game over, the thrashing will continue for a bit, but it won't change the outcome. Microsoft has failed.”

Much more in the full article – recommended – here.

MacDailyNews Take: A toast! To Monkey Boy, for as long as it takes!

Our initial impression is that Microsoft, in trying to cram everything into Windows 8 in an attempt to be all things to all devices, will end up with an OS that's a jack of all trades and a master of none (which, after all, ought to be Microsoft's company motto)... We simply do not see the world clamoring for the UI of an iPod also-ran now ported to an iPhone wannabe that nobody's buying to be blown up onto a PC display.

From what we've seen so far, Windows 8 strikes us as an unsavory combination of Windows Weight plus Windows Wait.

Not to mention that probably no one on earth knows how much or what kinds of residual legacy spaghetti code roils underneath it all (shudder)... No matter what, if Microsoft's going to ask Windows sufferers to "learn a whole new computer" (and that's exactly how they'll look at it, regardless of how Microsoft pitches it), millions will simply say, "Time to get a Mac to match my iPod, iPhone, and iPad!"

As if they needed it: More good news for Apple. – MacDailyNews Take, June 6, 2011

As we have always said, even as many short-sightedly waved (and continue to wave) the white flag, the war is not over. And, yes, we shall prevail... No company is invincible. Not even Microsoft. – MacDailyNews Take, January 10, 2005

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "BTL" for the heads up.]

The Mac commercial that never aired: Original Mac design team’s ‘self-congratulatory’ interview video

Andy Hertzfeld, computer scientist and member of the original Apple Macintosh development team during the 1980s, has posted a video of snippets from interviews with members of the original Macintosh team, recorded in October 1983 for projected TV commercials that were never created or aired.

“It never aired because Apple deemed it too self-congratulatory, although it was used in some promotional materials sent to dealers,” Hertzfeld wrote on his Google+ page.

The Chiat Day video features Burrell Smith, Andy Hertzfeld, George Crow, Bill Atkinson and Mike Murray.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews readers too numerous to mention individually for the heads up.]